Putin and Russia have found themselves in quite a predicament. An “operation” expected to last a week at most has stretched to almost a month now as the Ukrainian people resort to guerilla warfare to impede Russian tank convoys.
The Russians have suffered losses in personnel and expensive armor with demoralized troops and trucks without fuel stuck in the snow. Meanwhile, Ukrainian special forces, soldiers, foreign free agents, and even Ukrainian civilians use western weaponry and aide in the form of Javelins and other anti-tank weaponry that is incredibly effective against Russian armor that is completely ineffective for modern warfare.
On the larger level, the international community has collectively condemned the Russian invasion and multiple sanctions have tanked the Russian economy to unprecedented levels. In a world where even China and other “anti-west” powers are standing back from supporting Putin, there is one country and one leader that has come out to support Russia more than any other.
Role of Belarus
Enter Lukashenko’s Belarus. The Belarusian government has recently pushed to constitutionally change its Nuclear free status, it has cracked down on anti-war and anti-Putin protests, and has allowed itself to be used by Russia in its Ukrainian invasion as a staging ground. In January, before the Ukrainian invasion, Russia and Belarus had their largest joint military exercise and in the current conflict Alexander Lukashenko has allowed Russia to move its arms and supplies through Belarusian territory. The Russian forces that took over the Chernobyl plant notably came from Belarusian lands as well.
According to sources in the US administration, “Minsk is now an extension of the Kremlin.”
Though Belarus has not officially deployed its own military in support of Putin, it is quite clear that Belarus is involved in the conflict in support of Putin. Historically, Belarus has been a puppet-state for Russia since the dissolution of the USSR.
Belarus and Ukraine
Considered to be the last dictator, Alexander Lukashenko has been the main mediator in Russia-Ukrainian negotiations as well. The Minsk accords are an example of this after the Crimean conflict between Ukraine and Russia. President Lukashenko has stayed in power using its geopolitical position to leverage for money and political influence from Russia and as a buffer for trade between Russia and the Ukraine. During the 2014 conflict, Belarus sold oil and power to Ukraine while it sold repackaged Ukrainian goods to Russia.
However, Belarus in general and Lukashenko in particular find themselves in a very unique position. Russia wants a swift end to the war in its favor, while most of the rest of the world wants the Russians to retreat. Belarus, on the other hand, benefits from an extended conflict. Whether it be through trade or increased importance to Russia as a staging ground and ally, it stands to benefit as long as Belarusian forces are not directly involved and begin suffering losses like Russia is.
Lukashenko has used Russian forces to stay in power after the referendum in 2020 and has been playing a delicate act of showing and then withdrawing support on varying levels for Russia throughout his history. He teased Russia with a possible Belarus-Russia merger for decades now and has used Russia for military, financial, and political support against his neighbors as well as his people.
The Current Situation
The situation might be worsening for Belarus, however. If the Russians are successful in Ukraine, then Belarus comes under pressure because it loses power that it had by working against Ukraine for Russia. Russia might no longer need Belarusian support anymore and Putin might begin exerting more control over the country. On the other hand, if Russia is beaten back and loses influence, then Belarus comes under pressure by the international community for its role in aiding Russia against Ukraine in the first place.
There has been news of false-flag operations being staged to goad Belarus into direct conflict and the recent push towards Nuclear re-proliferation for the country has sent up red-flags for the international community.
The Russian, Belarusian, and Ukrainian population holds its breath as the conflict worsens and pressure mounts on Putin and Lukashenko. All we can do is pray for rapid de-escalation of the current conflict and not Belarus becoming involved further because it may set a precedent for other countries to join in.
