May Resigns, Brexit Looms : Now What?

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On the 23rd of June 2016 the people of the United Kingdom (UK) comprising of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland voted in a referendum to end UK’s membership of the European Union (EU) -this is now referred to as ‘Brexit’ in popular and official discourse. The European Union started off as a customs union within western Europe after World War 2 but has now evolved as a political and economic union between most European nations, including the UK. The Union allows for the free movement of people and capital all across Europe, has its own Parliament to set regulatory rules including but not limited to trade, transport, the environment and also criminal justice.

The scheduled date/deadline for the UK to exit the EU was 29th March 2019. But as of now, there has still been no ‘Brexit’. The British Parliament has so far been unable to reach a deal or agreement as to ‘how’ will the Brexit take place, and this is what has caused the delay. A six-month extension to the deadline has been agreed upon by the EU, setting the new date for Brexit to be the 29th of October.

Why Is A Deal Needed? 

The British Parliament needs to vote by a majority as to what would happen after the UK is no longer a member of the EU -as it may cause great instability to do so without some rules and regulations in place to deal with the repercussions. What are those repercussions? There are a great number of EU citizens currently residing in the UK -working and studying- and many UK citizens also reside in the EU. All their fates would become unknown. Many supplies for local stores and manufacturers are sourced from mainland Europe, may not come in, thus potentially cause great shortages of necessity items such as food and medicine in the UK.

A trade deal would need to exist between the UK and the EU to govern future trade, e.g. would there be any tariffs on goods coming in and/or going out? Would there be different quality standards that the products would have to adhere to? Most of the UK follows EU regulations on the environment, trade, consumer rights, workplace rights and those would suddenly seize to exist after Brexit – though it is reasonable to assume that most people and corporations would continue to follow the same rules and regulations as convention until newer regulation emerges from the UK.

Moreover, the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland is currently open. It is the only land border that stands to exist between the UK and the EU. Currently people and capital can freely move between the two places, have developed close ties over the years and have inter-dependent economies. What would happen in this situation in the case of Brexit? Would this mark the return to guard towers of the past and tedious and time-consuming visa checks for people commuting between Dublin and Belfast?

These are the potential problems that the UK must prepare for, which is why some sort of a deal is necessary to exist when divorcing the EU. The British Parliament voted on and rejected the option for exiting ‘without a deal,’ popularly referred to as a ‘No-deal Brexit’.

Is There a Deal ? 

British Prime Minister (PM) Theresa May negotiated with the EU a very detailed and comprehensive 585-page withdrawal agreement. In popular media, it is called ‘May’s Deal’. The deal has been twice voted down by the Parliament and has caused great embarrassment for PM May. She put the deal through a third vote even, despite having seen it fail twice with some minor changes and still saw fail to pass, the threat of a no-deal Brexit not being enough to deter the deal’s opponents.

So, what’s the problem with the deal? ‘The Irish Backstop’. One part of the deal allows for the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland to remain open until regulations can be mutually decided upon – especially on the movement of goods and people. Neither side wants to see a return to checkpoints, towers, customs posts or surveillance cameras at the border, in case it reignites the troubles and disrupts the free cross-border flow of trade and people. But there hasn’t been agreement on how to exactly resolve this problem.

PM May’s coalition partners, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) which is based in Northern Ireland have unflinchingly opposed this ‘backstop.’ They say that this would mean the EU goods can come and go within Northern Ireland but not the rest of the UK and it can likely lead to borders being created between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, eventually leading to a different status for Northern Ireland in the British Union. There is also no deadline as to how long this backstop will last, which the DUP fears would lead to it lasting for an indefinite period. Without the support of the DUP and partisan opinions within May’s Conservative Party, this deadlock continues to persist.

There was also a vote within the British Parliament on whether or not there should be a ‘second-referendum’ to potentially end up ‘remaining’ in the EU. That option was also voted down by the Parliament.

Theresa May called for snap-elections in 2017 in a bid to increase her party’s majority in the Parliament to make the Brexit process quicker and easier but ended up losing her party’s majority – which has led to a great deal of problems for her government in terms of accomplishing an agreement on Brexit. The deal could have passed if the Tories had a majority in the Parliament and did not have to depend on the DUP’s support to pass the deal.

So What Now ? 

Theresa May has announced that she will resign from her post as the leader of the conservative party on the 7th of June and later step aside as the PM by the end of the month as the new PM is selected from within the ranks of the Tories. She has termed her inability to deliver on Brexit as a source of deep regret and disappointment. The Labour party has welcomed her resignation but are calling for fresh general elections instead, to decide the fate of Brexit and the UK. A general election seems unlikely as the Tories gear up to wrest the leadership of the party and subsequently the premiership of the UK.

May survived two votes of no-confidence in the Parliament after the failings of her deal. She previously committed to step aside once a deal was agreed upon and the vehicles of Brexit were put in motion. It seems that she did not get to that point. She had planned on putting her deal to a vote for the fourth time, but that idea also collapsed as no agreement was reached with the Labour party on the deal.

What is the UK likely to look like post-Brexit? May has said that even in the absence of a deal, EU citizens living in the UK can continue to do so without much change, the UK would eventually set up a new system to register them and allow them residence status. The fate of UK citizens in the EU is uncertain in a world where no deal takes place. Would corporations stop following safety standards and environmental regulation? Unlikely.

By convention, most organizations would continue the same way and the British Parliament could simply import EU regulation and make it a formal part of British law. Continuing the same way because of simple convention would also enable the UK to perhaps create slightly tweaked regulation in terms of the environment, consumer safety and labour rights if that is what the Parliament decides. The British Department of transport says that there also won’t be a significant change in terms of transport, new number plates would not be needed to drive outside of the UK, a simple Great Britain (GB) sticker on a European license plate would do the trick. Healthcare would probably be negatively affected as the reciprocal healthcare between the UK and EU would seize to exist and EU citizens in the UK without permanent status would find themselves out of healthcare access. Healthcare costs would also generally rise as UK residents won’t be able to access healthcare in the EU.

It has been a long time since the process for Brexit was initiated and still, to be put very clearly, it is very unclear as to what is going to happen. It is unclear if any sort of agreement would be reached after a new Prime Minister is installed by the Tories as they do not command a majority in the Parliament and there seems to be no compromise from the DUP on the backstop or any acceptance of the deal that exists by Labour. If Labour’s call for another snap election is heeded, a reconstituted Parliament may be able to pass a deal before the October deadline or perhaps a much more efficient solution would be for the new Prime Minister to reach a compromise within the Parliament. These are the only two paths, none of which seem easy.