Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Hindu right-wing party the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) were voted into power for a second time in what can be described a landslide victory.
Months before the elections in India, tensions flared between them and neighbour Pakistan after a suicide attack in Kashmir valley killed 40 Indian security personnel. The Indian Prime Minister’s response to what he believed was an attack by Pakistan through proxy became one of the defining aspects of his election campaign.
In the run-up to the elections, Modi played on nationalist sentiments with threats towards Pakistan in speeches, including nuclear threats and saying he would divert water away from Pakistan.
With Modi back in the highest office in the country for a second term, now is a good time to wonder how this will affect foreign relations between the two nuclear-power neighbours.
Indo-Pak relations in Modi’s first tenure
Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan was not invited to Modi’s oath-taking, a contrast from 2014 when then-PM Nawaz Sharif attended the ceremony. This was the first in a series of moves towards bettering relations between the two countries during the first two years of Modi’s first stint.
In November 2014 at the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation summit, Nawaz Sharif and Modi posed for a handshake. Indian media reported later that both leaders had a secret-meeting at the summit.
In July 2015, the two leaders met on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation moot in Russia and in the December of the same year, Modi became the first Indian PM to visit Pakistan, signalling that relations between both countries were on an upward trajectory.
However, in January 2016 relations deteriorated after an attack by an armed group at the Pathankot Air Force station. India blamed Pakistan for the attack and suspended dialogue. However, in an unprecedented move, the Indian government allowed an investigative team from Pakistan, consisting of members of the country’s military intelligence, to probe the incident.
The Uri attack in September 2016 saw a 180-degree turn in India’s stance. The BJP government started taking a harsher stance against Pakistan. In October, tensions exacerbated after India and Pakistan decided to expel officials posted in diplomatic missions on charges of espionage. And in November of the same year, the SAARC summit was scheduled to be held in Pakistan, which India refused to attend, blaming the host country for facilitating the Uri attack in September.
In December of 2017, the Indian PM also accused his opposition party Congress of colluding with Pakistan to influence the Indian democratic process. During election campaigning, the BJP stoked nationalist sentiments by speeches and a hardline stance against Pakistan.
Was Modi’s rhetoric just for the election trail?
Now that Modi has been elected, concerns rise about what it means for Indo-Pak relations and the South Asian region. After his re-election, his Pakistani counterpart Imran Khan called him to extend congratulations and expressed hope that peace could be brought to the region.
Pakistan has repeatedly called for talks and made peace overtures during the recent flare-up after the Balakot strikes. Prime Minister Khan in an address to the nation said Pakistan wanted peace and just two days after an Indian pilot was captured in Pakistani territory, the PM announced he would be released, hoping this would send India the message that Pakistan is serious about promoting peace between the two neighbours.
While Modi and the Indian government did not respond during election season, there is hope that the anti-Pakistan rhetoric was just for the election trail.
In a tweet, PM Khan had stated it would be easier to achieve peace between both countries if Modi was re-elected to power. While he was slammed for his comments, there’s something to be said about them. With any future overtures of peace, there would be backlash from India’s right-wing elements and it would be easier for a right-wing BJP to appease them rather than if Congress had come into power and sought better relations with Pakistan.
The newly elected Indian government does not stand to gain anything from continuing an aggressive approach towards Pakistan. Understandably, it is not only the ruling parties which must want peace talks. Army institutions in both countries but especially in Pakistan are heavily involved in foreign policy and any overture must be supported by them.
Pakistan’s Army Chief General Qamar Bajwa last year also showed a willingness to resume dialogue with India. New York Times last September, quoted Western diplomatic and Pakistani sources as saying that Gen Bajwa, “concerned about Pakistan’s international isolation and a faltering economy, quietly reached out to archrival India about resuming peace talks, but the response was tepid”.
Understandably, both countries still exist on extreme sides of the spectrum. India has repeatedly said terror and talks cannot go together and accused Pakistan of providing a safe haven to militants who attack India. Pakistan, on the other hand, has blamed India for the rebellion in Balochistan and also on many occasions raised the issue of India’s human rights abuses in Kashmir.
With the SCO moot in June and the United Nations General Assembly in September, India and Pakistan will have two different forums to meet publicly and discuss the way forward for peace in South Asia.
Another obstacle is the actions of non-state actors that affect Indo-Pak relations. Uri attack, Pathankot attack and the recent attack in Kashmir that killed 40 Indian security personnel shows how the peace process is undermined by such elements. Both sides must be fully transparent when it comes to such incidents – finger-pointing and baseless accusations will only destroy any potential for peace.
The road ahead is tough but one thing is certain – both countries must meet in the center of their own policy extremes to give peace a chance.
