The US and Pakistan have had a seesaw-like relationship since the Cold War when they formally created a strong foreign policy on one another especially during the USSR invasion of Afghanistan. Officials and media in the US have warned that US support to Pakistan should be cut citing reasons of terrorism, meanwhile Pakistan officials and media have been raising concerns over the possibility of US as a military threat.
How Pakistan-US relations have evolved
Pakistan and the USA first established bilateral relations a few months after Pakistan gained independence in 1947 making the US one of the first countries to establish relations with Pakistan as a state. US-Pakistani relations were strengthened during the Cold War against the USSR leading to Pakistan’s involvement in several alliances and pacts during the Cold War. Relations between Pakistan and US temporarily worsened during Zulfikar Ali Bhutto’s government, but once his government was overthrown by the military leader Zia-ul-Haq, relationship between Pakistan and US normalized. In fact, they further improved when Pakistan aided the US in fighting against the USSR’s invasion of Afghanistan especially during Operation Cyclone – an operation which involved arming, training, and financing Mujahideen in Afghanistan to fight the Soviet Army.
However, once the USSR fell, US saw little importance of an alliance with Pakistan and considering that Pakistan was developing nuclear weapons at the time, US placed sanctions on Pakistan until they suspended their nuclear program. The Pakistani administration continued developing their nuclear arsenal as they saw it as necessary against an increasingly strong India who already had nuclear weapons. But, US changed their stance towards Pakistan after the 9/11 attack in New York and declaration of the War on Terrorism, as Pakistan had shown interest in aiding the US. Subsequently, US declared Pakistan as one of its major non-NATO allies and provided $25 billion of funding to combat militant and terrorist groups in the region.
The Pakistani-US relations took yet another turn in 2008-2009 when Pakistan and the US criticized each other’s approach towards terrorism. Pakistan accused the US of not helping Pakistan enough in controlling terrorism in Eastern Afghanistan and targeting major terrorist figures, while the US pinpointed blame on Pakistan stating that Pakistan was harboring terrorists. Following secret CIA operations to kill Osama Bin Laden without communication with Pakistani forces, relations between Pakistan and US further turned sour. Pakistan had captured a US soldier Raymond Allen Davis during one of these operations and charged him for several breaches of law, while the US demanded his release citing that he had diplomatic immunity as he was part of the US Consulate in Pakistan. Pakistani people demanded justice against Raymond Allen Davis as the actions committed were illegal and without notice to local authorities, but he was released once a $2.4 million fine in the form of blood money was paid. This incident led to the lowest point of relations between the US and Pakistan with public image of US reaching an all-time low in Pakistan and vice versa.
Pakistan and US took made changes to their foreign policy stances again, as both countries became allies once again in the fight against terrorism. Both sides ‘reset’ their relationship during the incumbent US Government’s rule under Donald Trump, as Trump praised Pakistan for helping in the Afghan Peace Talks while Pakistan PM Imran Khan stated his intentions to peacefully end the war in Afghanistan. Initially, Trump had thought of suspending military ties with Pakistan as he said he would cancel all aid but talks between Pakistan and the US changed his stance. Pakistan and US continue to aid each other in their economic, military, and scientific objectives, as US is Pakistan’s second largest supplier of military equipment.
How the landscape of foreign policy has changed in the last few decades
Since the fall of Soviet Union in 1991 and the rise of China as a superpower, US has made changes to its foreign policy in the subcontinent region. It has been trying to outbalance China’s power in world politics by strengthening ties with nations of geopolitical potential against China. This has meant that it has built good ties with Japan and India. Pakistani leaders have seen this and continued to build their strong ties with China, while also keeping in mind the possibility of an attack from India. Pakistan’s unstable relationship with US has pushed them to pursue better relations with Russia and the neighbouring Iran. Read about US Iran tension.
Iran is important to Pakistan as an ally because if Pakistan does come under attack, it will essentially be a landlocked country without Iran considering it has poor ties with its other neighbours, and the South of Pakistan is open to the sea. Building ties with Iran is important not just strategically, but also because it can open avenues to trading especially the trade of oil – a resource Pakistan needs.
Why the US appears to be a threat to Pakistan now
Pakistan has become a scapegoat for USA’s failures in containing terrorism within Afghanistan which has led to a general poor reception of Pakistan among the public of various countries. With China’s increased cooperation and alliance with Pakistan, it allows Pakistan some breathing space and reduces its reliance on ties with the US. The fact of the matter is that US needs Pakistan more than Pakistan needs the US now. Pakistan has the sixth-largest armed forces and is one of nine nations with nuclear weapons in the world. Combined with Pakistan being in proximity of China and Russia, Pakistan allows US to have a powerful ally if proxy wars break out between Russia/China and US in the region. Moreover, Pakistan’s continued role in containing terrorism within Afghanistan and aiding in peace talks makes it important to US.
However, keeping in mind the increased tensions between US and Pakistan in the recent past and USA’s continual blaming of Pakistan for harboring terrorism, US may very well pull away all support to Pakistan. Experts do believe that US will never be a military threat to Pakistan and vice versa, as Pakistan and US are both nuclear-armed nations so they would never engage in a direct war. Still, USA’s warmer relations towards India, its impending conflict with China and China’s friendlier approach towards Pakistan could create serious rifts between the US and Pakistan. Additionally, US is supplying India with military equipment, as India expands its military budget and modernizes its army. In response, Pakistan has begun to purchase more and more modern arms from China showing its plan to distance itself from the US. All in all, Pakistan appears to be going towards China for help, while India seems to be going towards US for help hinting towards formation of India-US and Pakistan-China alliance pacts.
