Indo-Pak Tensions : The Implications of Nuclear War – Explained

Reading Time: 5 minutes

Over the past couple of years, the possibility of a nuclear war is becoming more likely, owing to factors like tensions between the US and North Korea, US and Russia and more recently, India and Pakistan given the illegal usurpation of Kashmir by India. As events have unfolded over the last weeks with no signs of India slowing down it’s ethnic cleansing in the region of Kashmir, the Prime Minister of Pakistan has stepped up to the curb.

On a visit to Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistan-administered Kashmir, in a speech marking Pakistan’s 72nd independence day, Khan stated: “The Pakistani army has solid information that they [India] are planning to do something in Pakistani Kashmir, and they are ready and will give a solid response. We have decided that if India commits any type of violation we will fight until the end. The time has arrived to teach you a lesson.” The threat is not to be taken lightly, and if the situation does accelerate into a full-scale war, it is worth noting that both India and Pakistan have a stockpile of nuclear weapons.

Pakistan’s stockpile

Pakistan’s nuclear power debut was in 1998, in a series of nuclear tests conducted in the month of May. The program was initiated in the 1970s. Pakistan is the 7th county in the world with the power to produce and develop weapons of mass destruction. Currently, Pakistan’s stockpile consists of 150 to 160 nuclear warheads, the majority of which are thought to be stowed in central storage. The nation has continued the development of new delivery systems like submarine-launched ballistic missiles that will add to the already extensive stockpile. The current array consists of various nuclear weapon delivery systems, which also include medium-range ballistic missiles, short-range ballistic missiles, and an aerial platform. It is also thought that the country is developing tactical nuclear weapons.

India’s Stockpile

In 1974, India became the 6th nation to develop nuclear weapons when it conducted a nuclear test in the month of May. The test was known as ‘Smiling Buddha’ and was aired as a peaceful nuclear explosion by the country’s government. In May 1998, India also conducted a range of underground nuclear explosions and declared them as nuclear weapons tests. Currently, the country’s stockpile is capped at between 130-140 nuclear warheads. India has a policy of no first use of nuclear weapons. The country has the ability to launch nuclear weapons via land, air and sea-based delivery platforms.

The Precarious Situation

As many have predicted, the escalation to a nuclear crisis could be on account of Kashmir. Given that both countries possess the ability to go head to head in a nuclear war, it is important to understand what the detriments and effects of a nuclear war can be. While the main consequences amount to immediate destruction of infrastructure and millions of fatalities, there are also other detriments that emerge over time and materialize in the aftermath of the detonation which includes a nuclear winter, radiation poisoning, and disastrous impacts on the environment and the food supply.

The Effects Radii

Once the bomb detonates, the impact diffuses over a span of 5 radii. The smallest is the fireball radius, which touches 0.25 miles, and the second is the radiation radius, which entails the heaviest amount of radiation. According to Nukemap, ‘’…without medical treatment, there can be expected between 50% and 90% mortality from acute effects alone. Dying takes between several hours and several weeks.” In the air blast radius, the pressure is at its highest with infrastructure collapsing, heavy injuries, and loss of many lives. This radius is a benchmark for medium damage. The thermal radiation radius entails third-degree burns that go deep through the layers of the skin causing severe scarring or disability. In the last air blast radius, windows might break and cause injuries. This radius is the benchmark for light damage in various cities.

Radiation Poisoning

Nuclear warfare will inevitably lead to radiation poisoning – an extremely painful and terrible way to die. It includes symptoms such as nausea, vomiting, spontaneous bleeding, diarrhea, and severely burnt skin. 600 rem radiation has a 90% chance of creating fatal illness, while a dose of 450 rem radiation will create a fatal illness in half of the people affected. Those who survive this dose suffer long-term, as DNA and molecular strands are broken down, leading to issues such as genetic mutations and an increased probability of cancer in the future generations.

The Environment

It has been stated: “Almost everybody on the planet would die.”

According to Alan Robock, an environmentalist, the harshest long-term effects in the aftermath of a blast consist of the black smoke coupled with the dust and particulates in the air, which will also attack agriculture. The explosion will target cities and industrial areas that will inevitably produce tons of smoke upon burning, in turn diffusing into the stratosphere and remaining there for years as there will be no precipitation to wash the smoke out. The black smoke would then diffuse and expand into the world, which would cause the earth to heat up and block out the sunlight over the Earth.

If sunlight is blocked, the world will be subject to colder temperatures and less rainfall, causing a direct impact on the agricultural output of the world. As a result, famine would be widespread in the world within a couple of years.

The extent of the impact is directly proportional to the amount of the rising smoke. The two potential outcomes of nuclear warfare are nuclear autumn and nuclear winter. In the latter, all of human existence would be wiped out.

Nuclear Autumn

A nuclear autumn would be the result of 5 million to 50 million tonnes of black smoke. According to Robock and Toon, a professor at the University of Colorado Boulder, a fight between New Delhi and Islamabad could lead to a Nuclear Autumn. In a research article titled ‘Self-assured destruction: The Climate Impacts of Nuclear War’, they wrote: “Even a ‘small’ nuclear war between India and Pakistan, with each country detonating 50 Hiroshima-size atom bombs could produce so much smoke that temperatures would fall below those of the Little Ice Age of the fourteenth to nineteenth centuries, shortening the growing season around the world and threatening the global food supply.”

A confrontation between India and Pakistan could lead to the emission of 5-6 million tons of black smoke into the stratosphere. As a result of such, according to the professors, American and Chinese agricultural production would decrease by 20 to 40% within a span of 5 years. The cooling of the earth could span a decade and derail the Earth to the coldest temperatures. This situation has been dubbed by Ira Helfand, a director at the anti-nuclear war Physicians for Social Responsibility, as the “nuclear autumn.” The nuclear autumn also entails a risk of starvation for nearly 2 billion people, with a concentration in Southeast Asia, Latin America, North America, and Europe. Hefland states, “The death of 2 billion people wouldn’t be the end of the human race, but it would be the end of modern civilization as we know it.”

Moreover, the lack of food and water might lead to wars and skirmishes over the remaining sources between the surviving countries.

Nuclear Winter

This is the doomsday scenario resulting from the emission of 50 to 150 million tons of black smoke into the stratosphere. The smoke would spread out in the world in a short period of time leading to a 17 to 20% decrease in the surface temperature for the initial years and then rise by 5 degrees Fahrenheit for the next ten years. The biggest detriment would be for the Arctic, but the impact would be widespread in the world. The professors wrote: “This would be a climate change unprecedented in speed and amplitude in the history of the human race.”

Moreover, precipitation around the world would decrease by 45%. With a drop in temperatures and next to no rainfall, there would be no agricultural output, which would inevitably lead to famine and cause deaths in millions by starvation. If people don’t die of starvation, they will most certainly succumb to the devastation caused by the depleted ozone layer, as huge amounts of ultraviolet rays will penetrate the surface of the earth and cause damage to all kinds of ecosystems and human beings, particularly those with light-coloured skin.

A Comment

As it has been demonstrated, a nuclear war will be detrimental for billions of people not directly caught in the crossfire. It does not matter which countries butt heads; the impact of nuclear warfare is global whether it is a small-scale war or a large-scale war, whether it results in a nuclear winter or a nuclear autumn. The effects of the war would be felt all around the world and across the entire planet.

*Graphic image credits go to Fatima Wali*

Farah Jassawalla

The author is a graduate of the Lahore School of Economics with a Double Majors in Economics and Political Science. She is also a writer, political analyst, entrepreneur and a social activist. Tweets @FarahJassawalla

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Farah Jassawalla

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