On 22nd September, the President of China, Xi Jinping, made an announcement to the U.N. that took the world by surprise. He publicized the intention of China to tackle carbon emissions and called on all countries in the world to work towards achieving a green recovery for the world economy in the wake of the worldwide pandemic.
“Humankind can no longer afford to ignore the repeated warnings of Nature and go down the beaten path of extracting resources without investing in conservation.”
He further stated, “We aim to have CO2 emissions peak before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.”
Before this announcement, China had declared that it would peak emissions by 2030 but had chosen to remain mum about long-term goals. The emissions from China were high during 2019 and 2018 when the majority of the world had turned to alternatives to fossil fuels.
Thus, the news came as a shock for many around the world.
What this means
This claim means that China will remove the same amount of carbon that it is emitting into the atmosphere to achieve net-zero carbon emissions. In theory, by 2060, China will turn to clean energy sources and neutralize any remaining emissions. However, the plan is not yet definite.
Nevertheless, this target places China squarely in line with the European Union and the U.K., as well as other countries that have committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. In addition to the pledge, the President also declared that the country would hand in a clear, defined set of goals under the Paris Agreement soon.
The fine grain
These events took place in the wake of President Donald Trump’s remarks at the U.N. General Assembly, where Trump framed China as ‘bad’ and the U.S. as ‘good.’ He declared, “…we must hold accountable the nation which unleashed this plague onto the world: China,” in reference to the worldwide pandemic and criticized the country for causing ‘rampant pollution.’ He also called the Paris Agreement ‘one-sided.’
A tweet from Li Shuo, an expert on Chinese Climate Policy at Greenpeace Asia, sums up the President’s strategy, “Xi Jinping’s climate pledge at the UNGA, minutes after Trump’s speech, is clearly a bold and well-calculated move. It demonstrates Xi’s consistent interest in leveraging the climate agenda for geopolitical purposes.” Also see china’s one child policy.
“By playing the climate card a little differently, Xi has not only injected much-needed momentum to global climate politics but presented an intriguing geopolitical question in front of the world: on a global common issue, China has moved ahead regardless of the U.S. Will Washington follow?”
The strategy here is clearly to take advantage of the U.S. reluctance to answer the pressing concerns around climate change. This is a way to upstage the U.S, as Xi has done before by committing to minor climate action on the stage of international politics.
These announcements are thus in line with the assertive role of China in global governance in recent times. The country has emerged at the forefront of international institutions that have been traditionally associated with Western countries and gone so far as to create its own, like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.
The move has been lauded by Li Zheng, who is the executive V.P. of Tsinghua University’s Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable Development. He stated that the pledge “reflects China’s resolution to take international responsibility for addressing climate change.”
He did, however, state that the task is challenging in the face of China’s developing economy. “China is still in the process of developing its economy, energy consumption will continue to rise, and China’s energy consumption relies heavily on coal. Achieving carbon neutrality under these circumstances is very difficult.”
The other side of the story
Apart from suffering in the realm of geopolitics, China has a lot to lose from unchecked climate change. The country has been subject to national disasters on account of climate change and will be subject to more by 2050. This summer, the country experienced catastrophic floods in the central Yangtze river basin. It is also experiencing rising heatwaves and rising sea levels that will be detrimental to cities near the coast like Shanghai.
How China will achieve net-zero carbon
While the country has yet to publish a concrete plan for how it plans to achieve net-zero carbon emissions, some researchers have already mapped out ways for how it can do so. One of the major requirements is to turn to electric vehicles and renewable energy. However, there are key challenges ahead in terms of revamping the cement and steel industries.
A report published by the Energy Transitions Commission has modeled how China could achieve its goal by 2050. The report was conducted in collaboration with the Rocky Mountain Institute and published last year.
It claims that “it is technically and economically possible for China to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 at a very small economic cost to growth and consumer living standards, and China is well placed to gain a technological competitive advantage from the transition to net-zero emissions.”
One of the significant changes is to be made to the power sector, which has to be decarbonized. This means that China will have to turn to wind and solar energy as the main source of power, and the capacity for that will have to increase fifteen-fold. Moreover, investment needs to be doubled for solar power and increased three to four times for wind.
In addition, the country will have to transform the primary consumers of fossil fuel – their buildings, industry, and transportation – to fit into the new grid. Nearly all vehicles will need to run on electricity, as will all public transport.
Industrial production will have to turn to hydrogen to replace coal. Hydrogen is an expensive alternative but will achieve the set goal. China will have to begin from scratch and revamp entire industries in order to achieve its goal. The path is rocky and challenging, but certainly achievable.
